The new era of crypto banks and prediction markets

Author

Noel Moldvai
October 16, 2025

TL;DR. Crypto and prediction markets are gaining regulatory momentum as Palmer Luckey’s crypto bank backed by Peterr Thiel receives preliminary U.S. approval. Prediction market startup Kalshi hit a $5B valuation as its rival Polymarket secured a $2B investment from the NYSE. Meanwhile, SpaceX takes its next step toward Mars by retiring Starship V2 to make way for the new V3 rocket.

The Q3 2025 Augment Power 20 is live!

Augment’s Q3 2025 Power 20 Pre-IPO List is here — built from exclusive research and trading activity on our platform. SpaceX holds the #1 spot for the seventh straight quarter, with Anduril at #2 and Anthropic at #3. The pre-IPO market reached $2.22T in aggregate value, doubling in just one year. AI companies now make up half the list, with 10 of the top 20 spots.

Palmer Luckey’s crypto bank receives U.S. approval

Erebor Bank, co-founded by Palmer Luckey and backed by Peter Thiel and Joe Lonsdale, has received early approval from federal banking regulators to move forward with launching its crypto- and tech-focused bank. The startup still needs FDIC approval, but is leaning on Luckey’s political influence and plans to lend against crypto and AI-related assets.

Prediction market startup Kalshi hits $5B valuation as rival Polymarket lands $2B from NYSE

Prediction market platform Kalshi raised a $300M Series D at a $5B valuation, more than doubling in three months. Meanwhile, rival Polymarket announced $2B in backing from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the NYSE. Both platforms now operate under U.S. regulatory frameworks, signaling rising legitimacy for event-based trading in mainstream finance.

SpaceX retires Starship V2 as it gears up for Mars-ready V3 rocket

SpaceX has officially retired its Starship V2 rocket after a successful final test, clearing the way for the upcoming V3 prototype. Designed for in-orbit refueling and deep-space missions, Starship V3 will support future Moon and Mars flights. Pad upgrades in Texas and Florida are already underway.

Quick Takes

Why secondaries are the new normal in private markets

Going public used to be the finish line. Today, companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are choosing to stay private longer. Secondary sales are no longer a sign of lost faith. They are smart portfolio management in a world where IPO timelines now stretch over a decade. Founders want long-term control, LPs need liquidity faster, and secondaries offer a flexible off-ramp.

Cheerio! Until next week.
-Noel